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April 04, 2025
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
04 April 2025 - 00:00
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as there is a broad base exodus from the greenback after the universal tariff announcement. The biggest winner is SGD by 0.88%, followed by KRW 0.79%, MYR 0.24%, CNH 0.22%, PHP 0.21%, INR 0.08% and HKD 0.05%; while the largest loser
April 03, 2025
Mexico: Saved from Tariffs?
03 April 2025 - 19:56
Mexico has avoided reciprocal tariffs but still faces steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs. Authorities are negotiating to exempt goods, though retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports seem unlikely. Mexico's economy is slowing, with growing recession fears and diminishing nearshoring prospects. The industr
Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Decreased in March
03 April 2025 - 18:48
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that the inflation softened to 38.1% y/y in March from 39.1% y/y in February. We think favourable base effect, lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability until March 20 and suppressed wages cont
Tariffs: Inflation may be the biggest worry for the U.S.
03 April 2025 - 16:12
While surprising the market in their intensity, Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs were in line with previous threats on most countries, and with Canada and Mexico being treated less harshly that feared, the net surprise is modest to us. However we do feel that inflationary risks have increased furt
U.S. March ISM Services - Slowing consistent with regional surveys
03 April 2025 - 14:24
March’s ISM services index of 50.8, down from 53.5, is the weakest since June 2024, and contrasting a healthy S and P services PMI of 54.4. The weakness of the ISM data is however consistent with weak messages from most regional Fed surveys of the service sector.
ECB March Meeting Account – More Focus on Downside Risks than those on the Upside?
03 April 2025 - 14:22
The Account of the Governing Council meeting on 5-6 March 2025 seemingly dwelt more on the downside risks posted by trade uncertainties than the upside risks posed by fiscal expansion plans across much of the EU. It noted that not all members supported the proposal to lower the three key ECB inter
U.S. February Trade Deficit remains very high, Initial Claims still low
03 April 2025 - 13:13
Initial claims remain low at 219k, in fact surprisingly so at 219k from 225k, though continued claims at 1.903m from 1.847m are the highest since November 2021, and that could be a warning of a labor market slowing, though the 4-week average is creeping up only slowly.
Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January and February, but slower than November and December
03 April 2025 - 12:01
We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn
U.S. Tariffs - the EZ/EU Response?
03 April 2025 - 10:24
The U.S is imposing a widespread tariff on the EU of 20%, higher and broader than expected, this based on U.S. calculation of an effective tariff rate of in effect 39 per cent, a figure the EU puts at about 1 per cent. Moreover, rather than including factors such as VAT, and hygiene restrictions o