Continuum Economics

April 04, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 4 April

04 April 2025 - 19:35

Overview - It was another day of plunging equities, though in contrast to Thursday, the USD was stronger.

Argentina: Reserves Depleting, New Devaluation?

04 April 2025 - 18:28

Argentina's foreign reserves have recently fallen to USD 26 billion, the lowest since February 2024, largely due to Central Bank bond payments and difficulties acquiring USD. While internal demand recovers, imports are outpacing exports, complicating reserve accumulation. Additionally, maturing Cent

Chart USD/CAD Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure

04 April 2025 - 17:07

Consolidation following the fall to the 1.4025 fresh 2025 year low of 3 April is giving way to a corrective bounce

Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive

04 April 2025 - 16:59

We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k.

U.S. Fed's Powell - Waiting for greater clarity, but clearly concerned

04 April 2025 - 15:45

Fed's Powell shows concern about the inflationary impact of tariffs, which will imply a cautious approach to easing.

FX Weekly Strategy: April 7th-11th

04 April 2025 - 15:41

Focus on equities and tariffs rather than data
Hard to oppose equity weakness
FX moves to be mainly determined by risk characteristics
JPY remains the safest haven
AUD and NOK will struggle if equities continue to weaken

Chart AUD/USD Update: Fresh 5-year low in sharp selling pressure

04 April 2025 - 14:00

Volatile gains failed to extend, with prices meeting strong selling interest just below critical resistance at 0.6400~

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Drifting lower

04 April 2025 - 13:47

Choppy trade is giving way to a drift lower

Chart USD/JPY Update: Fresh year low - studies under pressure

04 April 2025 - 13:31

Anticipated losses have broken below 145.00 to post a fresh year low around 144.55

USD flows: Mild recovery on employment report, but risks remain

04 April 2025 - 13:23

US emloyment report modestly stronger than expected, but of limited significance

Canada March Employment - Consistent message of weakness

04 April 2025 - 13:22

Canada’s March employment with a 32.6k decline is the steepest fall since a brief plunge in the lockdowns of January 2012 and highlights the recessionary risks posed by US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% while wage growth slowed significantly, to 3.5% from 4.0%.

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Consolidating sharp losses - studies under pressure

04 April 2025 - 13:10

Sharp losses have posted a fresh 2025 year low around 101.25

U.S. March Employment - A healthy picture, but can it persist?

04 April 2025 - 13:01

March’s non-farm payroll with a 228k increase is significantly higher than expected but less so net of 48k in downward revisions. The month looks like a bounce from two months restrained by bad weather, and shows a still strong labor market, though unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% and avera

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Smart bounce

04 April 2025 - 11:30

Cautious trade around 4.1800 has given way to sharp gains

USD, JPY flows: JPY surges again on China retaliation

04 April 2025 - 11:24

China has announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% triggering general sharp losses in equities and a shift out of riskier currencies to the JPY and CHF

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Edging higher in choppy trade

04 April 2025 - 11:10

Choppy trade above congestion support at 18.7250 is giving way to a test higher

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Volatility giving way to consolidation - studies rising

04 April 2025 - 10:43

The spike to 1.5725 has been pushed back

Psychology for major markets April 4th

04 April 2025 - 10:25

USD making recovery but underlying tone equity and USD negative

Europe Summary and Highlights 4 April

04 April 2025 - 10:13

The USD managed a general recovery through the European morning, gaining strongly across the board.

This week's five highlights

04 April 2025 - 10:00

Tariff Man In the Spotlight But Inflation may be the biggest worry for the U.S.
The Potential EZ/EU Response for U.S. Tariffs
Fed Speakers' Views
U.S. March Non-Farm Payroll Stronger than January and February
RBA Kept Rates Unchanged

Russia GDP Growth Loses Steam in the First Two Months of 2025

04 April 2025 - 09:14

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development on April 3, Russia's GDP expanded by 0.8% YoY in February following a 3% YoY increase in January driven by military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. The softening of growth figures demonstrates monet

UK GDP Preview (Apr 11): Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys

04 April 2025 - 09:13

UK GDP Preview: Resilience in Spite of Soft(er) Surveys
Despite a fresh downside surprise for January numbers, the odds are increasing that current quarter GDP will be decidedly positive as opposed to the weak(ish) picture we perceive. This is all the more likely given the 0.1% m/m ‘recovery’ w

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 4th

04 April 2025 - 09:09

ISM services survey could provide more negative news on the US economy
Trade data also likely to emphasise weakness in Q1 GDP
USD can weaken even in a risk negative environment
CHF CPI unlikely to have much impact, but CHF/JPY vulnerable

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Under pressure

04 April 2025 - 08:33

Steady losses have reached congestion support around 0.9400 in both EUR- and CHF-driven trade

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending January losses in CHF-driven trade

04 April 2025 - 08:18

Sharp losses are extending in CHF-driven trade

Chart EUR/GBP Update: More positive above 0.8473/75

04 April 2025 - 07:59

Anticipated gains have reached resistance within congestion around 0.8450 and 0.8473/75

Chart EUR/USD Update: Room for a minor pullback

04 April 2025 - 07:45

Consolidation beneath the 1.1145 fresh year high of 3 April is expected to give way to a pullback

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Extending losses, 190.00 level at risk

04 April 2025 - 07:38

Break of the 192.00 support see prices extending rejection from the 195.75/196.00 resistance to open up room to the 190.00 congestion

Chart GBP/USD Update: Turning away from 1.3200 in profit-taking

04 April 2025 - 07:31

The break above resistance at congestion around 1.3100 and the 1.3120 Fibonacci retracement has met anticipated selling interest at 1.3200

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Focus on the 90.12, August low

04 April 2025 - 07:22

Extending the break of the 93.00 level and sharp losses through the March low at the 92.00 congestion return focus to the 90.12, August low

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Sharp rally to 1.7800 figure

04 April 2025 - 07:06

Sharply higher to reach 1.7800 figure as prices extend break of the 1.7418, March high

SEK flows: SEK slips on weaker CPI

04 April 2025 - 06:53

SEK slipping back after weaker than expected Swedish CPI. Scope for further losses

EUR flows: EUR steady but some corrective decline possible

04 April 2025 - 06:52

EUR steady after weakish German orders data, but gains above 1.11 look a bridge too far and there is scope for a pullback towards 1.10

Chart USD/PHP Updates: Extending losses, but stretched

04 April 2025 - 06:12

Pressure remains on the downside to extend break of the 57.100 support through the 56.880, 61.8% Fibonacci level

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating test of 85.0000 figure

04 April 2025 - 05:16

Sharply lower as prices gapped down to the 84.9675 low

Asia Summary and Highlights 4 April

04 April 2025 - 05:14

BOJ deputy governor Uchida says will raise rates if inflation rises and economy improves
Japan February household spending -0.5% y/y
Major equity indexes stay in the red

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 4th

04 April 2025 - 04:41

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extending rejection from 7.3500 high

04 April 2025 - 04:39

Sharply lower to extend rejection from the Thursday's spike high at the 7.3500 level

Chart USD/MYR Update: Extending rejection from 4.4780 high

04 April 2025 - 04:25

Extending rejection from the 4.4780 high to retest support at the 4.4160/4.4100 lows

AUD/USD flows: Equities stay in the red

04 April 2025 - 03:36

Major equity indexes stay in the red

Chart USD/THB Update: Room for deeper pullback from 34.45 high

04 April 2025 - 02:57

Rejection from test of the channel resistance from the November high see prices unwinding the overbought daily studies

Chart USD/KRW Update: Under pressure, focus return to 1427.00/1425.00 lows

04 April 2025 - 02:47

Extending sharp losses following rejection from the 1477.00, January YTD high

Chart USD/SGD Update: Rejection from 1.3500 return focus to 1.3280, March YTD low

04 April 2025 - 02:28

Rejection from the 1.3500 level has seen sharp drop to retrace gains the past two weeks to return focus to 1.3300/1.3280

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating gains to 1.3207, fresh year high

04 April 2025 - 02:16

Break above the 1.3000/14 congestion and March high has seen sharp rally to reach fresh year high at 1.3207

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating break to 1.1145, fresh year high

04 April 2025 - 01:46

Break of the March high at 1.0954 has seen strong rally to reach fresh year high at 1.1145

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room for deeper pullback from 164.00 resistance

04 April 2025 - 01:27

Extending choppy trade as prices remains unable to sustain break of the 160.72, 21 March low

USD/JPY flows: Taking a breather

04 April 2025 - 01:26

BOJ deputy governor Uchida says will raise rates if inflation rises and economy improves

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating sharp losses to 145.17 low

04 April 2025 - 01:16

Losses through the 146.54 March low has seen extension to reach fresh year low at 145.17

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .5850 resistance

04 April 2025 - 00:42

Consolidation below the .5773 resistance has given way to sharp break higher through the Mar high at .5830 to reach the .5850 resistance

Chart AUD/USD Update: Still choppy, but pressure building on the upside

04 April 2025 - 00:21

No follow-through on break above the .6330 resistance but pressure remains on the upside